If you’ve been watching the headlines lately, you’ve probably seen Southwest Florida pop up again and again, everything from “the market is slowing” to “worst market in the country.”

But here’s the truth.

When you look at the actual October numbers, it paints a much more complete story. The market isn’t broken. Buyers didn’t disappear. It’s simply a more disciplined, price sensitive market than we’ve been used to over the last few years.

And that matters whether you’re thinking about buying, selling, or investing anywhere from Naples up through Fort Myers.

Quick note before we jump in: real estate data always lags, so this December update is based on October closed sales data.

1) Closed Sales, Buyers Are Still Buying

We always start with closed sales because that shows us what buyers actually did.

October closed sales

  • Collier County: 380 closed sales, up 32.4% year over year

  • Lee County: 1,123 closed sales, up 26.7% year over year

One important footnote here is that last year we had storms/hurricanes that slowed parts of the market, so year over year comparisons are still impacted by that.

But even when we compare month to month, sales are still trending upward:

  • September closed sales: Collier 358, Lee 1,113

Bottom line, buyer activity picked up after summer, and we’ve been feeling that directly with more showings, stronger inquiries, and more contracts happening.

 

 

2) Median Sales Price, Softening (Not Crashing)

Median price helps us understand pricing trends and negotiation power once we’re under contract.

October median sales price

  • Collier County: $743,650, down 1.5% year over year

  • Lee County: $389,000, down 2.5% year over year

So yes, pricing is still softening, but this is not a crash. This is a market normalizing after rapid appreciation through the COVID years.

Here’s what we’re seeing:

  • Homes that are priced correctly are selling

  • Homes that are overpriced are sitting longer and chasing the market with reductions

Pricing strategy matters more right now than it has in years.

3) Days on Market, Buyers Are Taking Their Time

Days on market reflects market pace and pricing accuracy.

October average days on market

  • Collier County: 91 days, up 30% year over year

  • Lee County: 65 days, up 18.2% year over year

Compared to September:

  • Collier was 84 days

  • Lee was 67 days

This matches what we’re seeing on the ground:
Buyers are more selective, they’re taking longer, and they’re being very intentional about what they’re willing to move forward on.

4) New Listings, Seller Competition is Back

New listings show us what sellers are doing.

October new listings

  • Collier County: 677 new listings, up 24% month over month

  • Lee County: 1,987 new listings, up 25% month over month

September dipped, and October picked back up, which is typical as we move into shoulder season and more sellers return to the market.

More inventory means more competition, which means:
presentation + pricing = everything right now

5) Pending Sales, Demand is Still Moving Forward

Pending sales give us a forward looking picture of demand and what’s likely coming next.

October pending sales

  • Collier County: 464 pending sales, up 11–12% year over year

  • Lee County: 1,389 pending sales, up 14% year over year

So no, demand isn’t dead.

Contracts are still happening, but buyers are absolutely negotiating harder and being more careful about inspections, condition, and overall value.

6) Inventory and Months of Supply, A Buyer Leaning Market (Not Distressed)

Inventory has stabilized from earlier peaks.

October active inventory

  • Collier County: ~2,799 active listings

  • Lee County: just under 8,000 active listings

A few months earlier, Lee was closer to 10,000, so the surge has eased.

Months of inventory (October)

  • Collier County: 7.4 months (down from 11 earlier this year)

  • Lee County: 6.9 months (down from 9 earlier this year)

This puts us in a balanced to buyer leaning market, and it’s why we continue to see price reductions across the board.

Important point:
A declining market doesn’t mean prices freefall overnight. Real estate prices are sticky. Sellers test the market, adjust slowly, or choose not to sell at all.

That’s also why the median price doesn’t always mirror every price reduction you see online, because median price reflects the middle of what sold, and sales can still be heavily influenced by higher end closings.

New Construction vs Resale, Where Are the Opportunities?

We’re still seeing a heavy presence of new construction in Southwest Florida, and builders continue to offer incentives in a big way.

They often hold base prices steady, but negotiate through:

  • rate buydowns

  • closing cost credits

  • upgrades

  • design incentives

At the same time, don’t sleep on resale.

Resale is favorable right now too, and there are a lot of strong opportunities if you focus on homes that are well priced and well prepared.

One thing we’re seeing consistently:
buyers do not want projects
And if a home needs work, buyers expect a serious discount.

What This Means for You

If you’re a buyer
You have more leverage than you’ve had in a while.
There are opportunities in both new construction and resale, but value matters and buyers are being intentional.

If you’re a seller
Strategy matters.
Pricing matters.
Condition and presentation matter.

This is not the market to “test it high and see what happens.”

The best homes are moving when they’re priced right, and we’re even seeing multiple offer situations in this market when a property is positioned correctly.

Want a Neighborhood Specific Breakdown?

If you’d like a breakdown specific to your home, your community, or your price point, our team is happy to help.

I’d also love to hear what you’re seeing where you live:
Are homes sitting longer?
Are certain price points still moving fast?
Are you noticing more price reductions?

You can contact us directly at 239-776-6872, and if this update was helpful, please share it with a friend who’s thinking about moving to Southwest Florida.

Because at the end of the day, we’re here to help you Live Joy — and make smart real estate decisions while you do it.

 

Watch the video HERE: